Programming notes: Morning Money will not be issued on October 11th (Monday). October 12th (Tuesday) will return to the normal schedule.
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Welcome to work day — With (temporary) debt-restricted transactions on hand, economic attention is directed to Friday’s September employment report, and inflationary pressures continue to emerge, reducing unemployment from 5.2% to 5.1%. , Hourly wages are expected to rise 0.4%.
Moody’s Mark Zandy Email: “September employment increased by nearly 500,000. This is up from the increase in employment of 235,000 in August, but the average monthly employment increase since the beginning of the year is less than nearly 600,000 Wild. One of the cards is the impact of hurricane Ida on work, but the storm occurred before the BLS survey week.
“The pandemic delta wave has hit the recovery of the job market, resulting in reduced travel and a burden on restaurants and cinemas. The already scrambled global supply chain is further disrupted by the delta and chipped. And other components and material shortages … Fortunately, the worst financial blow from Delta is at hand as infections and hospitalizations recede. ”
Via Goldman Sachs: “We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 600,000 in September, surpassing the consensus of +500,000. Labor demand remains very strong and the unemployment allowance is strengthened on September 5. We believe that the national expiry has boosted effective labor supply and employment growth, as in July and August in states that ended early federal benefits.
“We expect the number tomorrow to increase 200,000 times and further in October. We also believe that the reopening of schools contributed approximately 150,000 people to employment growth in September. Nonetheless, big data employment signals were mixed and dietary activity recovered only slightly. ”
Don’t read too much — Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “[T]Today’s payroll report has nothing to say about the big picture for the coming months. The report captures labor market activity in the early stages of the recession in Covid Delta cases, and the study was conducted just one week after the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits and other Covid-led programs.
“In short, the data reflects a fluid labor market and provides little clue as to how key variables will work over the coming months, but that’s what markets and critics are obsessed with. Will not stop. ”
Debt Limit Trading Stack — Burgess Everett, Kamala Emma, Nicholas Wu: “The Senate has pushed ahead with a revision of its short-term debt cap … Congress has taken a major step towards halting the financial blunder until December. Temporary patch Overcame Senate Republican congressional obstruction, 61-38, and set the stage for a low-drama final pass vote that is expected to fall only to the Democratic Party, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker.
“The Chamber of Commerce puts a two-month debt limit patch on Democrats only after a few hours of fierce GOP whipping to ensure that at least 10 Senate Republicans proceed with the bill. Gives the ability to clear the bill with a majority threshold. ”
IMF drama — Victoria Gida: “The Board of Directors of the International Monetary Fund will meet on Friday to consider whether Managing Director Christalina Georgieva should continue her work. She is familiar with the debate.
“George Eva is associated with a scandal involving China and an annual report that ranks countries as investment destinations, dating back to her time as CEO of the World Bank. Independent report from the law firm. The book has been confused by the IMF’s head since last month when it discovered that World Bank staff were being pressured by senior executives to change important data to improve rankings in China and other countries. The pressure is rising. ”
Wall Street Celebrate Debt Limiting Transactions — With the WSJ’s Caitlin Ostrov
Michael Worsthorn: “U.S. Major Stock Index says Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer could postpone government default stand-off for months as lawmakers reach an agreement to extend short-term debt limits After that, it rose on Thursday. ”
China’s decline under the Evergrande — Reuters Andrew Galbraith and Vidya Ranganathan: “Bonds and stocks issued by Chinese developers fell on Friday, due to the debt problems of the Chinese Evergrande Group, which regulators struggle to raise money as the onshore market returns from a week’s vacation. There were few clues as to how to propose to contain the infection. ”
Tesla ships to Austin — Bloomberg’s Danahar and Gabriel Coppola: “Tesla will relocate its headquarters to Austin, Texas. In Austin, Texas, a new Model Y and upcoming Cybertruck plant is nearing completion, with Golden State home for 18 years. After that, I moved from California.
“Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk announced a move at the Austin plant at a shareholders’ meeting of an electric vehicle manufacturer on Thursday. Founded in 2003, Tesla was initially based in San Carlos, California. In 2009, a year before the IPO, the company announced a move from a start-up company to Palo Alto, a suburb of the lush Silicon Valley, home to Stanford University and several venture capital firms. Growing into the most valuable car maker, Texas, located halfway between the two coasts, has become the centerpiece of the United States. ”
College students find a job boom — NYT Nelson D. Schwartz and Coral Murphy Marcos: “For many college students, the arrival of last year’s pandemic did more than disrupt research, threaten health, and close campus life. The usual route from classroom to work has been closed.
“On-campus recruitment visits have been discontinued, and the recession caused by the coronavirus has stopped companies from hiring. However, this year, white-collar employers have increased staff and several offers among job seekers. Elderly and recent graduates are in great demand because of the fact that recruitment is well above last year’s level, and in some cases 2019, for university placement office directors and corporate talent executives. It reports that it exceeds pre-pandemic activity. ”
ICI Appoints New York Life Executive Chair — The Investment Company Institute announced on Thursday that New York Life Investment Management CEO Yie-Hsin Hung was elected chair of the Institute’s board of directors. In a press release, ICI stated that she was the first woman and colored person to hold that position.
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