Undefeated Phillies under Rob Thomson seems to go against history in pursuit of the NL playoffs

Congratulations, Rob Thomson.

1 week ago No one knew who you were.. Now the whole world knows you as the best manager of baseball ever. At least if you’re measuring with winning percentage … and set the minimum number of games you manage to 4.

Some call it anomalous, especially in the following cases: Corey Knebel keeps throwing 9th time.. But hey, 4-0 is 4-0In particular, in the man’s first four games, after taking over the sub.500 team that everyone swore, he was just a manager away from his abilities. The MacArthur Foundation is disappointing. Because everyone in the Deladelphia Valley now looks like a genius.

Given that Phillies Having played at a pace of 162 wins since switching to Thomson, it may be time to revisit the questions asked by many. Joe Girardi announces firing on Friday..

How often do mid-season administrative changes actually work?

Well, I did math — at least some of them — and the easy answer is that it depends on how you define the two parts of the question.

First, we define “midseason” as a confluence of schedules sufficient to provide incumbent managers with a representative sample of the game, but early enough for a successor manager to take charge of a significant amount. is. The MLB season can be divided into quarters of approximately four 40 games, so let’s define the “midseason” as the middle two quarters. Also, limit the investigation to 1996, as the historical importance of team personnel decisions, primarily like the 1871 Fort Wayne Keongas, is questionable.

A little more complicated is determining the meaning of the word “work”. How do you define success? Let’s dive.

Since 1996, the first full season after the strike and the first year of any sample, there are 40 instances of the team with multiple managers finishing the year, with at least 40 games in command. Of those 40 teams, only 3 finished in the playoff split round.

  1. The 1996 DodgersWas 41-35 years old when Tommy Lasorda resigned due to health concerns.
  2. The 2009 RockiesDismissed Clint Hurdle on 18-28 and finished with 92 wins under Jim Tracy.
  3. The 2004 AstrosDismissed Jimmy Williams at 44-44 and went to 48-26 under Phil Garner.

Another way to read it is that the team with the losing record fired the manager and played off in the midseason only once since 1996.

Similarly, only the three teams that had the record of losing at the time of the switch won at least 86 games. The first was the 2009 Rocky team, which lost to the Phillies in the NL Division Series.

The other two:

  1. The 2008 Blue JaysGoing 35-39 under John Gibbons, then 51-37 under Cito Gaston.
  2. The 2008 MetsGoing 34-35 under Willie Randolph, then 55-38 under Jerry Manuel.

In total, 9 out of 40 teams have achieved victory records and 7 teams have won at least 86 games. But four of those seven were over .500 when the changes were made.

Phillies certainly chose the right time to declare a new start.According to them, they had the toughest schedule of the majors of the season. The Orioles were the only team to play against the team that lost the record on Tuesday. Girardi’s team was 10-9 in those games. Thomson is 3-0.

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After a three-game series against No. 1 Brewers, the Phillies’ next 13 games will face the losing team. They have 54 games left against the six NL teams that came behind them on Tuesday in the standings. They have six more against the 26-31 Diamondbacks. If they win 59% of those games (a record for the team’s defeat so far), it’s 35 wins in addition to the 25 they already have. At that point, in order to win 84, you need to win half of the remaining 48 games. However, assuming a 38-25 record against the losing team, even marking the remaining teams 12-36 would give Thomson a higher win rate than Girardi.

There is a difficult part to answer our first question. Without some political insight, you can’t be a Major League Baseball Human Resources Manager. Obviously, it’s appropriate for someone like Dave Donbroski to put his new man in a successful position. Many of the sample teams have seen a slight improvement in winning percentage after making changes. Summing them all together, the manager on the first day recorded a winning percentage of .438, but their replacement was marked at .480. This is the difference between 70 and 77 wins during the 162 game season, which is within the margin of error given factors such as schedule strength and regression to the mean.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, there were all sorts of signs that the Phillies would. Eventually start winning more games Regardless of the manager.

At the same time, both history and logic suggest that there is no harm in trying. When Phillies fired Girardi, They were clearly at a point where such a move made sense. But they were at that point, mostly because they tried everything else. One possibility they didn’t rule out was that personality changes could have a positive impact on a player’s ability to acquire spots.

Bryson Stott may have spent much of the season gaining the trust of his manager instead of relaxing and playing the ball. Perhaps Girardi’s anxiety about his work and his poor roster created negative energy that needed to be shaken from his existence.

Either way, something had to change. Even if Thomson didn’t reach 111-0 and the Phillies didn’t become the fourth team in the playoffs in 25 years after a mid-season management change, they ran out of all other options to turn things around. .. There was only one thing left to try.

David Murphy is a reporter for The Philadelphia Inquirer.

Undefeated Phillies under Rob Thomson seems to go against history in pursuit of the NL playoffs

Source link Undefeated Phillies under Rob Thomson seems to go against history in pursuit of the NL playoffs

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