“It’s the season to check AccuWeather’s White Christmas forecast, as long-distance meteorologists take a peek at what the holiday weather looks like and where it’s more likely to snow this Christmas than usual.
With more and more places to get the first snowflakes of the season across the United States, it’s time to take out hot chocolate and anticipate the potential for White Christmas throughout the continental United States.
The climate pattern, well known for bringing precipitation to the northern layers of the country, may upset the scale of the region getting a white Christmas or just a handful of blizzards this year.
AccuWeather’s long-range forecasting team, led by senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok, has snowed in time for vacations to predict what the weather will be like in different parts of the United States a month after a big day. We focused on the main patterns that you might like. This winter.
La Niña, where sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are below average for a long period of time, was one such pattern that played a major role in mapping. The important thing to know about La Niña is that it tends to direct the storm north and shields the southern part of the United States from moisture.
When the La Niña event occurs, the probability of white Christmas occurring is higher than average in areas that straddle the northwestern, upper plains, and northeastern interiors. But the same is not true for the lower half of the country.
AccuWeather’s standards for “White Christmas” are centered around at least an inch of snow falling on the ground during the holidays. This is a difficult condition in many warm parts of the United States without the La Niña pattern.
“La Niñas is usually a storm in the north, which could hurt the southern region. This calm in December could cause problems in parts of the south,” Pasterok said. Says low latitude and white Christmas dreams, you shouldn’t expect those dreams to come true.
In addition to stormy roads that prevent snow from reaching southern locations, the likelihood of snow before and after Christmas is low in the Mid-Atlantic, southeastern, and southern plains. ground.
Even in areas historically less than 5% likely to snow on Christmas day, it is less likely to snow than usual. These very unlikely areas extend through the Gulf Coast, up the east coast to southern New England. In the northeast, the chances of a white Christmas are predicted to be below average, but the odds are closer to normal and it is possible to snow at higher altitudes.
“We are actually like being in that normal zone. [the Northeast] In case one of these sneaky late December systems comes in, I feel that this year’s White Christmas in Boston, New York, DC and Baltimore is slightly less likely, “Pastelok said. I am.
The La Niña stage favors the northern storm truck, so the southern branch tends to be blocked in most cases, Pasterok said, with a few exceptions. From the winter of 2020 to 2021, the system sank early in the south, some reaching Mexico. However, Pasterok said conditions have been set differently this year, and southern states should have a “more traditional La Niña” pattern, at least in the first part of the season.
The same is true for the southwestern United States, where fewer storms can have significant implications not only for ski resorts, but also for areas that rely on healthy snow to mitigate drought conditions.
The Southwestern United States has endured a long-running drought from Southern California to New Mexico. Even the Great Salt Lake has been affected by the heat and rain for decades.
“Over the southwest, the highest temperatures in the upper layers were quite noticeable, which caused the temperature to rise, which caused a lot of dryness in these areas,” said Pasterok. Forecasters believe that this high will pulsate throughout the winter, allowing storm trails to occasionally travel south to Central California, the Central Rocky Mountains, and Colorado this winter. However, many of the same areas have historically had less than 5% chance of snowing at Christmas and are expected to be even lower this year.
As of December 1, Denver, Colorado has recorded 224 consecutive snow-free days due to the warm and dry conditions throughout the region. Mile High City last received measurable snow on April 21, 2021. Denver International Airport measures an average of 9.1 inches of snowfall during a meteorological fall, and Denver International Airport typically receives the first measurable snow by October 18.
In contrast, drought-stricken northwestern regions may be more likely to snow than normal, especially at high altitudes.
Oregon and Washington, in particular, have endured the devastating effects of the drought, especially after a deadly heat wave that killed at least 96 people in Oregon alone in June, the Guardian reported.
However, due to the La Niña storm trails, along with western Idaho and parts of Northern California and Nevada, these are the two states most likely to have a white Christmas. Any precipitation will be welcomed in these particular areas of the west, just to buffer the area from the upcoming summer drought.
The Midwest will be a more complex bag in terms of what to expect for a vacation.
Swass in this region, which extends beyond the Central Plains to the Great Lakes region, is more likely than usual to have a White Christmas, including cities such as Omaha, Chicago and Cleveland.
But as we move further south, the possibilities for White Christmas begin to disappear. AccuWeather forecasts that rain may overtake snow from Christmas in the Tennessee Valley to the lower reaches of the Ohio Valley, making it difficult for the snow to remain on the ground.
AccuWeather White Christmas Forecast 2021 | Weather Warning
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